Falling Global Birth Rates
5 years, 3 months, 28 days, 22 hours
22 March 2024
‘Changes in fertility over the coming century will have profound effects on populations, economies, geopolitics, food security, health and the environment, with a clear demographic divide between the impacts on many middle-to-high income locations versus many low-income locations’.
That was the most dramatic of the conclusions of what for me is one of the most significant reports I can recall reading in a long-time, Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, undertaken by the University of Washington, funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, and published a few weeks ago in The Lancet. The conclusions of that work have been extensively covered in the press, so I will skip straight to what for me are the implications. Much of the press commentary extrapolates according to particular political and local agendas. But for me it is quite clear (whether some like it or not):
The fall in the birth rate, recorded and predicted, is symptomatic of the stunning progress made and predicated to continue in quality of life in the world. It reflects better education, healthcare, economic security, birth control, women’s rights, and the fundamental ability and freedom of nearly all individuals to choose the future they want.
It is a good thing for the future of our planet and our society. A stable or smaller population means less pressure on the planet’s resources. And this isn’t just about carbon emissions (i.e., we can’t say if we reach Net Zero the population level should be able to keep rising). It is also about sustainable agriculture, water supply, mining, impacts on our natural world, etc.
The economic prosperity of nations will increasingly depend on their openness to immigration. As the report diplomatically puts it ‘… this approach will only work if there is a shift in current public and political attitudes towards immigration in many lower-fertility countries’. It will also depend on the attractiveness of those nations to immigrants including how they are impacted by climate change. (Themes developed by Dr. Parag Khanna in his book MOVE).
The segment of populations that will suffer most if nations do not embrace what the report suggests is a need for ‘ethical and effective immigration policies with global cooperation’ are the young in the high-fertility but climate-stressed countries and the elderly in the low-fertility but economically-stressed countries.
It will be interesting (possibly scary) watching how that plays out in domestic as well as international politics.