The Selfish Gene
5 years, 10 months, 25 days, 16 hours
27 August 2023
We are, according to Richard Dawkins, the evolutionary product of The Selfish Gene, so it should not be surprising that appeals to altruism are not particularly effective at changing behaviour.
This most famous of Dawkins’ books seeks to explain why altruism exists at all, arguing that there are advantages to a gene to protect other gene carriers in a closely-genetically-related gene pool. But unfortunately most of the world is clearly not sufficiently closely genetically related for gene survival science to do the trick. So you and I probably won’t be changing our behaviour anytime soon to avoid another summer of wildfires in California, Hawaii, British Columbia, Greece, Italy, Tenerife, Chile or Kazakhstan – unless you or your close family were the victims of this year’s destruction.
But our evolutionary wiring means we will change behaviour when we benefit personally, which tends today to be measured in terms of net financial gain. So our best hope for action on climate change is when the financial case is overwhelming. And that time is now, according to research by Mark Jacobson and team at Stanford University, published in the journal Energy and Environmental Science in June. There is a summary by Mark in this blog.
Based on data for 145 countries, responsible for 99.7% of CO2 emissions, the research finds that switching to 100% renewable energy would cost about $62 trillion in upfront cost. But that investment would reduce private energy cost by 62.7%, from $17.8 trillion to $6.6 trillion per year, due to 56.4% less end-use energy consumption (because renewable energy systems are more efficient than combustion-based energy systems) and a 14.3% lower private cost per unit of energy. In addition there is a huge social cost benefit, estimated at a $33.6 trillion per year saving in health costs and $31.8 trillion per year saving in climate impact costs. And a net gain of 28.4 million jobs.
As a consequence the research concludes an average payback period on the investment required of 5.5 years, based just on the private energy cost saving, and 0.8 years based on the social cost savings.
5.5 years. Just less than the time remaining until we cross the threshold of 1.5 degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels that is the title of this email. Well within your remaining lifetime, and mine. I hope. So you will benefit personally, as well as the polar bears and all our children. Interested to get your chequebook out now?