Treating it like a War
6 years, 1 month, 5 days, 15 hours
16 June 2023
It was Thursday evening.
It had been a long and busy day. And thanks to Brisbane traffic, Sabine Schleicher and I had turned up only just in time for the presentation. Yet the next hour I was so captivated that all my braincells snapped back to attention. And not just captivated. Uplifted. Because what we were hearing was a blueprint that would not only deliver net zero to Australia, but would turn the country into a green export powerhouse that could help net zero many other countries too.
The Net Zero Australia study has been taken forward over the last two years through a partnership of the University of Melbourne, the University of Queensland, Princeton University, and management consultancy Nous Group. It builds on the modelling tools of the 2020 Net Zero America study led by Princeton University. The website contains immense detail in the modelling results and modelling summary reports.
So what would it take? Up to 500GW of renewable energy generation, the majority from large-scale solar PV in the Australian outback. Up to 120 GW of storage capacity, mostly from batteries. A network of high capacity transmission lines, including some carrying 20GW. Up to 140 Mt / year of hydrogen, mostly for export. Up to AUS$ 9 trillion of investment. Up to 800,000 skilled jobs. Total phasing out of coal. Some residual gas. Significant use of carbon capture and storage (on the basis the study concluded there was insufficient capacity in nature-based solutions to absorb the residual CO2). No use of nuclear (uneconomic).
Perhaps you think you could have made a good guess at a some of that without resorting to detailed modelling. But what is awesome about the study is the practical detail underpinning the scenarios, which includes for example forensic analysis of where solar and wind could be sited without significant adverse biodiversity impact, how much of the capacity would be on indigenous estate, water consumption demand, spatial and socio-economic impact on jobs, etc. etc. It is a complete net zero policy package.
So what would it take to actually do it? In the panel discussion that followed, skilfully chaired by KPMG colleague Cle-Anne Gabriel, ideas included mass permitting (rather than project by project) and a campaign of engagement with communities (quoting Cle-Anne, ‘change happens at the speed of trust’). But it fell to the scientist on the panel to say it bluntly, ‘we could solve this by 2040 if we treated it like a war’.